New Zealand's Got Duped

On Sunday night, TV One will announce the winner of the second season of New Zealand’s Got Talent. I predict it will be the youngest contestant on the show, 11 year old Jessie Hillel.  Here is my reasoning.

For many years I have been highly suspicious of the Got Talent format.  During the first season of the UK version, where the now world famous Paul Potts was uncovered, the final act to perform during any semi final or final was the one that received the public vote.  Over their six seasons, 59% of winners performed last while 88% of winners performed in the last 3 spots.  This is due to a very short voting window which favours those acts.

In New Zealand though, voting opens immediately after the first performer, advantaging the first and last acts. The results show that every single act that has won the public vote has been in either one of those spots.  This suggests that the winner will either be dance act J Geeks, who performed first or Jessie Hillel, who performed last.

People tend to get excited about a first act, vote and then get all prudent until the strategically placed final act reignites their desire to spend money.  Couple this with TV One’s audience who are more likely to vote for someone who they wish was their own grand daughter and Hillel has it in the bag.

In the case that I could be wrong and either J Geeks or Mihirangi Fleming (an apparent favourite) win the prize of $100k and brand new car, $1.6m of NZ On Air funding will have been used to discover acts that were already well established. J Geeks have an extensive history of successes, as we outlined this morning, while Mihirangi has toured extensively and even performed on television in Australia, including music show Spicks and Specks.

Make sure that you tune in for the hour long advertorial to find out who wins on Sunday night.

About the author

Regan is one of the co-founders of Throng Media.
If they're on, I'm usually watching Game of Thrones, The Killing, 24, Battlestar Galactica, The X Factor, Survivor, Go Girls, and the NRL.
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  • Carol

    Another cynical outburst at the Talent show?? What’s wrong, is Paul Holmes not dead yet?

  • http://www.facebook.com/david.i.batten Dave Ian Batten

    I agree. I think it would come down to Jessie Hillel, and Jgeeks.

  • http://twitter.com/robyngallagher Robyn Gallagher

    I like this theory. As I mentioned in the other NZGT discussion, there’s academic research that supports the idea that the later performers rank the highest. But it’s interesting that the NZ voting timing also gives the first performer an advantage. Another thing to consider – as far as I know, Jgeeks are the only act with an established fan base, which would give them an advantage over the other popular finalists.

    Also, some Jgeek fan has written a hilariously detailed account of their NZGT finals performance on the Jgeek Wikipedia page – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JGeek_and_the_Geeks#Grand_Final

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1040683755 Steve Gray

    did she win?

  • http://www.facebook.com/rustyviewer Russell Gray

    Well of course it turns out you’re completely wrong Ragan. But then, I’ve known that since last Thursday night. :)