Ratings: #BoycottTV3 is not working and here's why

After Campbell Live ended on the 29th of May, a campaign to boycott TV3 was called for. While comparing the average audience per program is one way to look at how things are going over time, in the instance that we’re talking about a blanket boycott of an entire channel by a group of people upset by the removal of a single show, a better way to look at the data is the Channel Share.

The Channel Share represents the percentage of all viewers tuning in to a particular channel. So let’s take a look at the data. This is what TV3’s channel share looks like during the review and then once Campbell Live ended.

channel-share-1

Daily Channel Share Last 8 weeks 5+, 7 Day Moving Average

On the face of it, it would appear that the channel share has suffered a slight drop in the two weeks following the departure of Campbell Live, but has it? We know there was a surge in viewership during the review so let’s put the last two weeks in the context of a bigger picture. Firstly, let’s look at the last 5 years.

channel-share-2

Daily Channel Share 2010 – 2015 5+, 30 Day Moving Average

Looking at this data, it is clear that TV3 has a problem. It’s not just individual shows that TV3 has been experiencing declining ratings in but the entire channel as a whole. Of all the TV channels available to watch, viewers have been increasingly choosing to opt away from TV3 to over the last five years.  This graph by itself clearly indicates that changes needed to be made at Mediaworks to either turn things around or at least ebb the decline.  So has it?

This is the channel share trend line for 2015 YTD.

channel-share-3

Daily Channel Share 2015 YTD 5+, 7 Day Moving Average

So far in 2015, the channel share for TV3 is trending upwards which would suggest the changes that have been implemented by Weldon and Christie are working. Where things are currently certainly indicates that the current boycott of TV3 is having no effect at all.

So why is this?  There have been petitions and protests and plenty of noise on social media about losing Campbell Live but it would appear that while 100,000 people may have clicked a Save Campbell Live button on a petition website, very few people appear to care enough to change the channel.

The noisy protagonist who has been driving the campaign is failed career political strategist Martyn Bradbury who last week wrote

The msm still don’t seem to be aware that there there is an active boycott TV3 for what they did to Campbell Live campaign going on, so while they ignore the reason, let’s continue to vote with our remotes away from TV3 until the msm are forced to acknowledge there is an active campaign to boycott TV3 and are then forced to confront the issue of removing Campbell Live.

and

Our ‘Boycott TV3 for what they did to Campbell Live’ campaign is starting to bite.

But as we can see from above, this is simply not true.  From last year’s spectacularly wrong election predictions through to this drive to get Campbell Live back on TV3 (whether that’s what John Campbell wants or not), it certainly appears as though Bradbury has no foundation in reality.  Is Bradbury’s reputation for being wrong partly to blame for the demise of Campbell Live? It wouldn’t surprise me.  I certainly wouldn’t be the first one question if he’s part of the problem.

So while we’ve lost Campbell Live, life has gone on for most people with the exception of a few squealers on social media.  Their impact is noise while positive change is happening for Mediaworks.

As they say, change is typically painful, but while there are those who suggest that what is being implemented is the dumbing down of the population, as it may well be, it appears to be what viewers want.

Weldon and Christie have been bought in to ready Mediaworks for sale.  These figures suggest that since they’ve implemented their changes in 2015, they’ve secured a slightly larger, and increasing, market share which the likes of Oaktree Capital will be rather happy with.

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About the author

Regan is one of the co-founders of Throng Media.
If they're on, I'm usually watching Game of Thrones, The Walking Dead, 24, Battlestar Galactica, The X Factor, Survivor, House of Cards, Mad Men and the NRL.
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  • K

    looking forward to seeing how Come Dine With Me rates, I know many people who can’t wait to watch that instead of Hosking..

  • disqus_sAWxzl8tLY

    Important to note that the major factor dragging the ‘Wheldon trendline’ upwards is the surge in channel share following the announcement of the Campbell Live review. With that removed the Wheldon trend is flat (still an improvement on the previous decline).

  • Brendon Taylor

    I think the interest generated by the impending cancellation of Campbell live, can be likened to that of when we hear tyre screeches we turn to look at the inevitable crash, because no one was interested in John Campbell before the cancellation announcement. I don’t know for sure but I feel that John Campbell decided his time was up when his producers were sending him to small takeaway bars to convince them to change the channel on their TV from 7sharp, I mean did John feel as desperate & meaningless as he looked?

  • dusty_slacks

    I wonder if the channel share for all channels had declined at the same rate?

  • Fayrestorm

    Um, I don’t know what your graphs indicate to be honest? There is no horizontal axis to indicate a specific timeline. Just going by the last graph, there appears to be a significant drop in ratings after the surge, which I can only assume was down to the last month of CL and the CL aftermath. So, as your bias is being worn unapologetically on your sleeve, I would say your comments are reflective of one thing only. An extremely twisted endorsement of Mark Wheldon, Julie Christie & Mediaworks at large. If you say it, it must be true? Well, the dummed down TV3 viewers, whom you so condescendingly refer to, may very well take you at your word. Others however may just…not 🙂

    • Judas Collins

      I just wish Throng could get their story straight. They published a very interesting story yesterday – with graphs and everything.
      It was called ‘Ratings – Come Dine With Me takes TV3 to new low.’
      It had more ring of truth than the ‘story’ on this page.