The latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll shows National support is down one point to 53%, Labour has dropped to a ten year low with 26% and the Green Party has picked up Labour party votes to put them on a record high of 13%.
“NZ First has had more attention recently but in this poll has less than half the support it needs to get back into Parliament. None of the other minor parties have much PARTY VOTE support but the newly formed Conservative Party has begun to blip on the radar”, says TVNZ Political Editor, Guyon Espiner.
Colmar Brunton interviewed 1,006 eligible voters between 12th – 16th November. The poll concluded last night and covered the entire period that the Tea Tapes story has been dominating news bulletins.
“The results of this poll show that if an election were held today National would govern alone with 66 seats. Based on current coalition partners and assuming electorate seats are held, National could add in four seats from the Maori Party, two from ACT and one from United Future.
“Labour would pick up 32 seats. The Greens would be a significant force with 16 MPs but that would not be enough to form a government even if the Mana Party was added. On current polling Annette Sykes would join Hone Harawira in Parliament for Mana.
“Mr Key has been under huge pressure over the secret tape recording but this poll shows it hasn’t significantly hurt his personal support. John Key has dropped back two points in the preferred prime minister poll but retains 53% support. Phil Goff is on 13%.
“The Tea Tape story has deprived Labour of media attention and according to this Colmar Brunton poll, it hasn’t hurt National or benefited NZ First. The big winners over the last week are the Greens who are on track for a record number of MPs.
Summary of ONE NEWS COLMAR BRUNTON Poll Results
(Interviewing conducted 12-16 Nov)
PARTY SUPPORT – PARTY VOTE
National 53% Down 1% (from 5-9 Nov poll)
Labour 26% Down 2%
Green Party 13% Up 4%
ACT NZ 2% Steady
The Maori Party 2% Steady
NZ First 2% Down 1%
Conservative Party 1% Steady
Mana Party1% Up 1%
Green Party 16
Maori Party 4*
Mana Party 2
United Future NZ 1*
* Indicates one or more overhang seats
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER
Key 53% Down 2% (from 5-9 Nov poll)
Goff 13% Down 1%
Peters 3% Steady
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Interviewing took place from 12th – 16th November 2011.
The data has been weighted to Department of Statistics Population Estimates to ensure it is representative of the population in terms of age, gender, household size and ethnic origin.