Decision 11

ONE News asked Colmar Brunton to crunch one more set of numbers around the election.  We wanted to know how accurate the major political polls were in the lead up to the poll that really counts, Saturday’s General Election.

The final analysis showed the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll recorded the least amount of difference with the actual party vote across the parties that were returned to Parliament, compared to any of the other pollsters.  

They stacked up like this:

  1. ONE News Colmar Brunton
  2. NZ Herald DigiPoll
  3. Roy Morgan
  4. 3 News Reid Research
  5. Fairfax Media Research International

The detailed results are reported in the table below. 

Kiwiblog’s David Farrar has done his own analysis with similar results, http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/how_the_pollsters_did.html

Viewer analysis showed that over 2.2 million people tuned in to TV ONE’s coverage of the election and election results across the weekend, see further ratings below.

ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POLLS IN LEAD UP TO GENERAL ELECTION

 

 

GENERAL
ELECTION
RESULT

 

ONE News
Colmar Brunton

 

3 News
Reid Research

 

NZ Herald
DigiPoll

 

Fairfax Media
Research International

 

Roy Morgan

 

26 Nov

19-23 Nov

24 Nov*

17-23 Nov

17-21 Nov

22-24 Nov

National

48.0%

50.3%

50.8%

50.9%

54.0%

49.5%

ACT

1.1%

1.7%

1.0%

1.8%

0.7%

1.5%

United Future

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

Conservative

2.8%

2.4%

1.8%

1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labour

27.1%

27.9%

26.0%

28.0%

26.0%

23.5%

Green

10.6%

9.8%

13.4%

11.8%

12.0%

14.5%

Maori

1.4%

2.0%

1.5%

0.4%

1.1%

1.0%

Mana

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

0.3%

1.1%

0.5%

NZ First

6.8%

4.2%

3.1%

5.2%

4.0%

6.5%

Others

0.7%

0.6%

n/a

0.3%

1.0%

2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National-Labour gap (%-points)

20.9%

22.4%

24.8%

22.9%

28.0%

26.0%

National + Labour

 

3.1%

3.9%

3.8%

7.1%

5.1%

National + Labour + Greens

 

3.9%

6.7%

5.0%

8.5%

9.0%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First

 

6.5%

10.4%

6.6%

11.3%

9.3%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori

 

7.1%

10.5%

7.6%

11.6%

9.7%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori
+ Other Parliamentary Parties

 

8.2%

11.3%

9.6%

12.6%

10.7%

Overall Poll Placing based on Least Difference
to General Election Party Vote Result
Across all Parliamentary Parties

 

1st

4th

2nd

5th

3rd

* Date poll was reported, not field dates

TELEVISION NEWS & CURRENT AFFAIRS AUDIENCES FOR ELECTION 2011

                        TV ONE                                                                       TV 3

ONE News
(6-7pm Saturday)

451,200

 

 

3 News
(6-7pm Saturday)

296,810

 

 Election 2011
(7pm-midnight Saturday)

389,600

1,562,800*

Decision 11
(7pm-midnight Saturday)

285,300

1,266,000*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Q+A
(9-10am Sunday)

108,350

250,740~

 

The Nation
(2 hr special 8-10am Sun)

82,610

263,480~

 Marae Investigates
(10-11am Sun)

106,920

248,530~

 

 

 

 

 ONE News
(6-7pm Sunday)

560,600

 

 

3 News
(6-7pm Sunday)

301,100

 

 SUNDAY
(7:30-8:30pm Sunday)

384,490

890,470~

60 Minutes
(7:30-8:30pm Sunday)

288,330

681,790~

   SOURCE:    Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5 years and over – average daily audience nationwide).

* SOURCE:   Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5+ nationwide – average daily reach). 

Because of the length of the election night programmes this measurement recognises that viewers may tune in for long periods but not watch the entire 5 hour broadcast.

SOURCE:   Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5+ nationwide – average daily reach). 

Because of the diverse range of topics and interest on these shows this measurement recognises that viewers may tune in just for one interview/story and shows the total number of viewers who tune in across the hour. 

    NOTE:        Audience figures are for first screenings only and do not include repeats – The Nation’s Sunday programme is included this week because it was a first screening.

TV3 has announced plans to broadcast a debate between Prime Minister, John Key, and the Leader of the Opposition, Phil Goff, as part of Decision ’11.  The hour-long debate will be moderated by John Campbell and will take place in the week leading up to the General Election on November 26.

TV3 will use the innovative Roy Morgan Reactor to track the responses of a panel of non-committed voters.  The Reactor’s results will be instantaneously displayed on screen, allowing viewers to see the reaction of the electorate in real time.

For the first time, the general public will also be invited to respond to the debate, through the ground-breaking Roy Morgan Reactor smart phone app.  Their responses will be broadcast in real time, and will be clearly distinguished from the reactions of the panel. 

3 News Auckland Bureau Chief Keith Slater says:

“We are delighted to have secured exclusive use of the Roy Morgan Reactor for what will no doubt be a decisive moment in the election campaign.

“This is new technology, which will add another dimension to the debate, and we expect the smart phone app to engage younger voters whose opinions can be difficult to measure.”

The Leaders Debate will be part of Decision ’11, authoritative and comprehensive coverage of the General Election from TV3’s leading news service.