Election 11

ONE News asked Colmar Brunton to crunch one more set of numbers around the election.  We wanted to know how accurate the major political polls were in the lead up to the poll that really counts, Saturday’s General Election.

The final analysis showed the ONE News Colmar Brunton poll recorded the least amount of difference with the actual party vote across the parties that were returned to Parliament, compared to any of the other pollsters.  

They stacked up like this:

  1. ONE News Colmar Brunton
  2. NZ Herald DigiPoll
  3. Roy Morgan
  4. 3 News Reid Research
  5. Fairfax Media Research International

The detailed results are reported in the table below. 

Kiwiblog’s David Farrar has done his own analysis with similar results, http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/11/how_the_pollsters_did.html

Viewer analysis showed that over 2.2 million people tuned in to TV ONE’s coverage of the election and election results across the weekend, see further ratings below.

ANALYSIS OF MAJOR POLLS IN LEAD UP TO GENERAL ELECTION

 

 

GENERAL
ELECTION
RESULT

 

ONE News
Colmar Brunton

 

3 News
Reid Research

 

NZ Herald
DigiPoll

 

Fairfax Media
Research International

 

Roy Morgan

 

26 Nov

19-23 Nov

24 Nov*

17-23 Nov

17-21 Nov

22-24 Nov

National

48.0%

50.3%

50.8%

50.9%

54.0%

49.5%

ACT

1.1%

1.7%

1.0%

1.8%

0.7%

1.5%

United Future

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.5%

Conservative

2.8%

2.4%

1.8%

1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labour

27.1%

27.9%

26.0%

28.0%

26.0%

23.5%

Green

10.6%

9.8%

13.4%

11.8%

12.0%

14.5%

Maori

1.4%

2.0%

1.5%

0.4%

1.1%

1.0%

Mana

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

0.3%

1.1%

0.5%

NZ First

6.8%

4.2%

3.1%

5.2%

4.0%

6.5%

Others

0.7%

0.6%

n/a

0.3%

1.0%

2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National-Labour gap (%-points)

20.9%

22.4%

24.8%

22.9%

28.0%

26.0%

National + Labour

 

3.1%

3.9%

3.8%

7.1%

5.1%

National + Labour + Greens

 

3.9%

6.7%

5.0%

8.5%

9.0%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First

 

6.5%

10.4%

6.6%

11.3%

9.3%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori

 

7.1%

10.5%

7.6%

11.6%

9.7%

National + Labour + Greens + NZ First + Maori
+ Other Parliamentary Parties

 

8.2%

11.3%

9.6%

12.6%

10.7%

Overall Poll Placing based on Least Difference
to General Election Party Vote Result
Across all Parliamentary Parties

 

1st

4th

2nd

5th

3rd

* Date poll was reported, not field dates

TELEVISION NEWS & CURRENT AFFAIRS AUDIENCES FOR ELECTION 2011

                        TV ONE                                                                       TV 3

ONE News
(6-7pm Saturday)

451,200

 

 

3 News
(6-7pm Saturday)

296,810

 

 Election 2011
(7pm-midnight Saturday)

389,600

1,562,800*

Decision 11
(7pm-midnight Saturday)

285,300

1,266,000*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Q+A
(9-10am Sunday)

108,350

250,740~

 

The Nation
(2 hr special 8-10am Sun)

82,610

263,480~

 Marae Investigates
(10-11am Sun)

106,920

248,530~

 

 

 

 

 ONE News
(6-7pm Sunday)

560,600

 

 

3 News
(6-7pm Sunday)

301,100

 

 SUNDAY
(7:30-8:30pm Sunday)

384,490

890,470~

60 Minutes
(7:30-8:30pm Sunday)

288,330

681,790~

   SOURCE:    Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5 years and over – average daily audience nationwide).

* SOURCE:   Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5+ nationwide – average daily reach). 

Because of the length of the election night programmes this measurement recognises that viewers may tune in for long periods but not watch the entire 5 hour broadcast.

SOURCE:   Nielsen TAM (Measurement: All people 5+ nationwide – average daily reach). 

Because of the diverse range of topics and interest on these shows this measurement recognises that viewers may tune in just for one interview/story and shows the total number of viewers who tune in across the hour. 

    NOTE:        Audience figures are for first screenings only and do not include repeats – The Nation’s Sunday programme is included this week because it was a first screening.

Brilliant compilation of highlights from last night’s election coverage from Dan News.

I took this photo of TV ONE around 11:30pm tonight:

I’ve been following along also on the Electoral Commission website and it says that the result is a tie between Nicky Wagner and Brendon Burns.  All the other news sites I’ve found are saying it’s a tie as well.  Has TVNZ got this wrong?

“I don’t think anyone here has ever watched TV3 to be honest, it’s a new thing for them tonight.”

– Rachel Smalley at NZ First Party Headquarters

7:00pm Saturday, November 26 on TV One

Election 2011 gets underway at 7pm, as the polls close and the results start coming in.

Mark Sainsbury, Guyon Espiner, Simon Dallow and Corin Dann host Election 2011 LIVE from the TVNZ Television Centre in Auckland. They’ll have all the latest election and referendum results, and show who will form the next government.

They’ll be joined by a wide range of candidates, party strategists and former MPs to give their expectations and insights on the night.

Peter Williams, Greg Boyed and ONE News political reporters will lead our LIVE coverage, embedded with the main party leaders and their supporters across the country.

Petra Bagust and Tamati Coffey will host a party of their own so voters can share their polling booth decisions and hopes for the future.

Wendy Petrie will present regular ONE News updates throughout the night.

I just saw this graph on TVNZ’s election coverage: 

Putting aside the issue of using a perspective graph makes it harder to compare, there’s something wrong with this graph: the informal votes (labelled INF) bar is not correct.

The correct graph should look like this:

Update: there are faint notches in their graphic indicating the “0” mark, however it’s not a clear enough distinction.

Several broadcasters will be covering tomorrow’s election. Here’s a rundown of the coverage on TVNZ, TV3, Sky News and Maori Television.

TVNZ

TVNZ will begin coverage following One News at 7pm. Mark Sainsbury, Guyon Espiner, Simon Dallow and Corin Dann host Election 2011 LIVE from the TVNZ Television Centre in Auckland. They’ll have all the latest election and referendum results, and show who will form the next government.

They’ll be joined by a wide range of candidates, party strategists and former MPs to give their expectations and insights on the night.

Peter Williams, Greg Boyed and ONE News political reporters will lead our LIVE coverage, embedded with the main party leaders and their supporters across the country.

Petra Bagust and Tamati Coffey will host a party of their own so voters can share their polling booth decisions and hopes for the future.

Wendy Petrie will present regular ONE News updates throughout the night.

 

TV3

 

TV3 will begin its coverage at 7pm, following 3 News.

Comprehensive coverage from around the country as New Zealand goes to the polls, hosted by John Campbell and Duncan Garner.

TV3 will also screen a special edition of The Nation on Sunday morning at 8am. Sean Plunket and Duncan Garner will present a special post election wrap up.

 

Maori Television

 

Maori Television will provide Election Day coverage in a five-hour special of its current affairs series, Native Affair, from 7pm.

The programme’s team of journalists will report live from around the country to track development and talk to voters in each of the Maori electorates.

A panel of commentators spanning the political spectrum will join Wilcox at Maori Television’s Auckland studio to discuss the results as they come in – and inject a dash of humour into the evening.

 

Sky News

Sky News will have coverage from 7pm live from the Sky News Auckland News Centre.

 

 

7:00pm Wednesday, November 23 on TV One

ONE News presents its last televised debate between National Party leader John Key and Labour Party leader Phil Goff. The LIVE debate will be hosted by Close Up’s Mark Sainsbury and moderated by political editor Guyon Espiner.

Mark Sainsbury will be joined by political scientists Dr Jon Johansson and Dr Claire Robinson.

A media panel lead by Te Karere Editor, Shane Taurima will also be given time to ask questions.

Viewers can be part of the action by sending in video questions for the leaders, voting in a text poll or posting comments on TVNZ’s social network sites. The debate will also be streamed LIVE on tvnz.co.nz

Missed Election 2011 – Leaders Debate: The Decider? It’s available online. Go to www.tvnz.co.nz and click ‘on demand’.

The infamous “tea tape” will not be made public, for now.

Chief High Court Judge Justice Helen Winklemann this afternoon refused to rule that the conversation between John Key and ACT’s Epsom candidate John Banks was private.

Freelance cameraman Bradley Ambrose, whose tape recorder was on the table during the conversation, was seeking a declaration that what was said between the two was not private.

Source: Stuff

 

TV3 kicked off election week last night with its first leader’s debate featuring John Key and Phil Goff and the major talking point to come out of it appeared to be ‘the worm’.

Certain media outlets and bloggers have this morning criticised TV3 for its choices for both the 65-strong group of uncommitted voters who were given meters to record their views and also the panel of experts.

The facts suggest Goff come out of the debate in a better position than Key but many have tried to put this down to the possible inclusion of a number of well-known Labour supporters in the panel of 65 who controlled the worm.

Goff was judged by most as the winner when it came to the worm, with the panel of 65 and the viewers at home with smartphones liking what the Labour leader had to say on issues including the cost of living, asset sales and the gap between rich and poor.

But Key played down the importance of the worm afterwards, saying it only represented “one group of people”.

“There’s obviously an awful lot of people who watched it without access to it.”

Commentator Brian Edwards raised the issue of the panel of experts consisting of Duncan Garner, Therese Arseneau and one Paul Henry, who is a dedicated right-wing advocate.

Edwards believed the panel was unbalanced with the inclusion of Henry and no left-wing supporter and it undermined the work that the network and John Campbell had done in the previous hour.

The debate was watched by a TV audience of 276,060 on TV3.

Source: Stuff, BrianEdwardsMedia, KiwiBlog